Recent Publications

Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

Organized severe convective storms are the main driver of warm season flooding in the U.S. In this study we show that the accumulated volume of extreme convective storms might double due to climate change. This indicates an increase in flood potentials especially in the eastern parts of the US, Canada, and Mexico by an unexpected magnitude.

Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection‐permitting climate model

 

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are large thunderstorms that contribute up to 65 % to the total summertime precipitation in the central U.S. Simulating this systems was a long standing problem in weather forecasting and climate modeling. Here we use a kilometer-scale climate model, which is able to capture MCSs precipitation realistically and show that many of the simulated features are statistically not distinguishable from observations.

The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

Extreme hourly downpours that are related to flash floods and landslides might intensify by 70 % and occur 5 times as often at the end of the century than they do today. This manuscript assesses the reasons for those changes and provides a general framework of how future downpours might change.

 

 

Running dry: The US Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

Weather systems that bring moisture to the U.S. Southwest did decrease in frequency over the last 35 years resulting in a increased drought potential in this area.

 

 

Running dry: The US Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

Weather systems that bring moisture to the U.S. Southwest did decrease in frequency over the last 35 years resulting in a increased drought potential in this area.

 

 

A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges
 

Convection-permitting models emerge as promising tools to significantly advance climate assessments. In this review article, we assess major challenges and critical components of convection-permitting climate modeling. Most importantly we discuss the added value of these models compared to state-of-the-art coarser resolution climate simulations.

 

 

Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis
 

Observational uncertainties in gridded precipitation products over Europe have a similar magnitude than the biases of state-of-the-art regional climate simulations. This means that climate modes cannot be scientifically evaluated without accounting for observational uncertainties.

 

 

Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
 

Reducing the grid-spacing of regional climate models from 0.44° to 0.11° improves model biases in large areas of Europe, leads to an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and results in advancements in the precipitation distributions of daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums.

 

All Peer Reviewed Publications

© 2016 by Andreas Prein