Recent Publications

Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

Organized severe convective storms are the main driver of warm season flooding in the U.S. In this study we show that the accumulated volume of extreme convective storms might double due to climate change. This indicates an increase in flood potentials especially in the eastern parts of the US, Canada, and Mexico by an unexpected magnitude.

Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection‐permitting climate model

 

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are large thunderstorms that contribute up to 65 % to the total summertime precipitation in the central U.S. Simulating this systems was a long standing problem in weather forecasting and climate modeling. Here we use a kilometer-scale climate model, which is able to capture MCSs precipitation realistically and show that many of the simulated features are statistically not distinguishable from observations.

The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

Extreme hourly downpours that are related to flash floods and landslides might intensify by 70 % and occur 5 times as often at the end of the century than they do today. This manuscript assesses the reasons for those changes and provides a general framework of how future downpours might change.

 

 

Running dry: The US Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

Weather systems that bring moisture to the U.S. Southwest did decrease in frequency over the last 35 years resulting in a increased drought potential in this area.

 

 

Running dry: The US Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

Weather systems that bring moisture to the U.S. Southwest did decrease in frequency over the last 35 years resulting in a increased drought potential in this area.

 

 

A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges
 

Convection-permitting models emerge as promising tools to significantly advance climate assessments. In this review article, we assess major challenges and critical components of convection-permitting climate modeling. Most importantly we discuss the added value of these models compared to state-of-the-art coarser resolution climate simulations.

 

 

Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis
 

Observational uncertainties in gridded precipitation products over Europe have a similar magnitude than the biases of state-of-the-art regional climate simulations. This means that climate modes cannot be scientifically evaluated without accounting for observational uncertainties.

 

 

Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
 

Reducing the grid-spacing of regional climate models from 0.44° to 0.11° improves model biases in large areas of Europe, leads to an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and results in advancements in the precipitation distributions of daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums.

 

All Peer Reviewed Publications

2020
  • Prein AF, Heymefield AJ (2020) The Impacts of an Increasing Melting Level Height on Surface Precipitation Phase and Intensity. Nature Climate Change

  • Prein AF, Rasmussen RM, Wang D., Giangrande S. (2020) Sensitivity of Organized Convective Storms to Model Grid Spacing in Current and Future Climates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

  • Towler E, Llewellyn D, Prein AF, Gilleland E (2020) Extreme-value analysis for the characterization of extremes in water resources: A generalized workflow and case study on New Mexico monsoon precipitation. Weather and Climate Extremes

  • Lopez-Cantu TP, Prein AF, Samaras C (2020) Integrating uncertainties across U.S. rainfall projections can increase robustness in planning for climate resilience. Geophysical Research Letters

  • Shen X, Huang DD, Wang W, Prein AF, and Togneri R (2020) Retrieval of Cloud Liquid Water Using Microwave Signals from LEO Satellites: a Feasibility Study through Simulations. Atmosphere

  • Darwish MM, Tye MR, Prein AF, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Dale M, Duncan F (2020) New hourly extreme precipitation regions and regional annual probability estimates for the UK. International Journal of Climatology

  • Bromley GT, Gerken T, Prein AF, Stoy PC (2020) Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains. Journal of Climate

2019
  • Tamang SK, Ebtehaj AM, Prein AF, Heymsfield AJ (2019) On Changes of Global Wet-bulb Temperature and Snowfall Regimes. Journal of Climate

  • Grabowski WW, Prein AF (2019) Separating dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on daytime convective development over land. Journal of Climate

  • Piazza M, Prein AF, Truhetz H, and Csaki A (2019) On the sensitivity of precipitation in convection-permitting climate simulations in the Eastern Alpine region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift

  • Prein AF, Bukovsky MS, Mearns LO, Bruyère1 C, and Done JM (2019) Simulating North American Weather Types with Regional Climate Models. Frontiers

  • Prein AF, AG Pendergrass (2019) Can we Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections? Geophysical Research Letters

  • Scaff L, Prein AF, Li Y, Liu C, Rasmussen R, and Ikeda K (2019) Simulating the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation in North America’s current and future climate with a convection-permitting model. Climate Dynamics

2018​
  • Prein, A.F. and Holland, G.J., 2018. Global estimates of damaging hail hazard. Weather and Climate Extremes.

  • Musselman, K.N., Lehner, F., Ikeda, K., Clark, M.P., Prein, A.F., Liu, C., Barlage, M. and Rasmussen, R., 2018. Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America. Nature Climate Change, 8(9), p.808.​

  • Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H.J., Barbero, R., Chan, S.C., Guerreiro, S.B., Kendon, E., Lenderink, G., Lewis, E., Li, X.F., Westra, S. and Alexander, L., 2018. The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. Advances in Science and Research, 15, pp.117-126.

2017
  • Prein AF, C Liu, K Ikeda, S Trier, RM Rasmussen, GJ Holland, MP Clark (2017) Increasing rainfall volume from future severe convective storms. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7

  • Prein AF, RM Rasmussen, K Ikeda, C Liu, M Clark, GJ Holland (2017) The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes. Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate3168

  • Prein AF, C Liu, K Ikeda, R Bullock, RM Rasmussen, GJ Holland, M Clark (2017) Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-017-3993-2
    Prein AF, RM Rasmussen, G Stephens (2017) Challenges and Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling. BAMS, 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0263.1

  • KL Rasmussen, AF Prein, RM Rasmussen, K Ikeda, C Liu (2017) Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States. Climate Dynamics

  • Aiguo D, RM Rasmussen, C Liu , K Ikeda , AF Prein (2017) Changes in Precipitation Characteristics over North America by the Late 21 st Century Simulated by a Convection-Permitting Model. Climate Dynamics

  • Púčik T, P Groenemeijer, AT Rädler, L Tijssen, G Nikulin, AF Prein, E van Meijgaard, R Fealy, C Teichmann, D Jacob (2017) Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble. Journal of Climate (submitted)

  • PA Mooney, DC Broderick, CL Bruyere, FJ Mulligan, AF Prein (2017) The role of regional climate model physics in simulating the summertime diurnal cycle of precipitation over the contiguous United States. Journal of Climate

 

2016
  • Prein, A. F., Holland, G. J., Rasmussen, R. M., Clark, M. P., & Tye, M. R. (2016). Running dry: The US Southwest's drift into a drier climate state. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(3), 1272-1279.

  • Prein, A. F., & Gobiet, A. (2016). Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis. International Journal of Climatology.

  • Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C., ... & Vautard, R. (2016). Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?. Climate dynamics, 46(1-2), 383-412.

  • Liu C, K Ikeda, RM Rasmussen, M Barlage, AJ Newman, AF Prein et al. (2016), Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9

  • Tobin, I., Jerez, S., Vautard, R., Thais, F., Van Meijgaard, E., Prein, A., ... & Noël, T. (2016). Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3), 034013.

 

2015
  • Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., ... & Brisson, E. (2015). A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of geophysics, 53(2), 323-361.

  • Jury, M. W., Prein, A. F., Truhetz, H., & Gobiet, A. (2015). Evaluation of CMIP5 models in the context of dynamical downscaling over Europe. Journal of Climate, 28(14), 5575-5582.

 
2013
  • Prein, A. F., Holland, G. J., Rasmussen, R. M., Done, J., Ikeda, K., Clark, M. P., & Liu, C. H. (2013). Importance of regional climate model grid spacing for the simulation of heavy precipitation in the Colorado headwaters. Journal of Climate, 26(13), 4848-4857.

  • Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., Truhetz, H., Awan, N. K., Keuler, K., & Georgievski, G. (2013). Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations. Climate Dynamics, 41(9-10), 2655-2677.

 
2011
  • Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., & Truhetz, H. (2011). Analysis of uncertainty in large scale climate change projections over Europe. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 20(4), 383-395.

 

 

 

 

© 2016 by Andreas Prein